EFJD Position Paper No. 1: Eritrea and the Evolving Dynamics of the Horn of Africa
For Immediate Release
Date: November 15, 2025
Our Stand on Current Regional Politics with Focus on Eritrea
The crises in the Horn of Africa stem first from within: from authoritarian regimes that rule without accountability, opposition movements that have failed to offer democratic alternatives, and societies fractured by fear and mistrust. These internal failures have weakened our states, eroded civic life, and opened the door for foreign meddling. On this fragile foundation, the intrusive political influences of neighboring middle powers have only deepened the region’s descent from instability to chaos. Wars have too often erupted out of personal quarrels among leaders, later disguised as national security imperatives demanding the sacrifice of our peoples’ sons and daughters. The result has been immense human loss, economic collapse, mass migration, and a political complexity that grows harder to resolve.
1. Background and Recent Developments
Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed rose to power with bold promises of reform and peace, marking a turning point after decades of TPLF-dominated EPRDF regime – a period that had blocked lasting peace with Eritrea by repeatedly conditioning the implementation of the final and binding border ruling under international law, prolonging the “no war, no peace” stalemate. His early acceptance unconditionally of the 2000 Algiers Agreement earned him the Nobel Peace Prize, but that peace soon unraveled into another devastating war between 2020 and 2022. Both Eritreans and Ethiopians endured devastating losses in a conflict whose declarations, goals, and ceasefire terms were decided without public consent or transparency, reflecting the entrenched lack of accountability on both sides.
2. Consequences of the Conflicts
Eritrea’s youth, economy, and social fabric continue to suffer. War and repression have produced mass displacement, family separation, and economic collapse. Both the Eritrean and Ethiopian governments have used regional instability for political survival rather than regional peace.
3. Emerging Threats to Eritrea’s Sovereignty
Since early 2024, Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has signaled intentions to acquire Eritrea’s port of Assab, citing Ethiopia’s ‘existential need’ for sea access for economic necessity. This rhetoric, coupled with overt military mobilization, poses a direct threat to Eritrea’s sovereignty as a member state of the United Nations. Any such invasion would trigger a prolonged and bloody war.
The EFJD condemns in the strongest terms any plan by Ethiopia’s leadership to seize Eritrean territory, whether by force or coercion. The organization also holds President Isaias Afwerki accountable for his reckless statements and actions that emboldened irredentist ambitions in Ethiopia.
4. Internal Contradictions and the ‘Tsimdo’ Narrative
The Eritrean regime, under the banner of “national defense,” has unveiled its so-called Tsimdo initiative, a project presented as outreach to the Tigray region of Ethiopia. Behind the language of reconciliation lies political opportunism. By manipulating cross-border ethnic tensions, the regime seeks to prolong its authoritarian rule rather than secure Eritrea’s sovereignty through the unity and will of its own people.
For decades, the Eritrean government, the TPLF’s ethnic federalism, and the Prosperity Party’s current policies have all sought to define Eritrea’s destiny through division — promoting identity-based politics and secessionist ideologies that weaken our collective strength. The regime’s rigid nationalism, cloaked in false patriotism, has silenced citizens, eroded trust, and fractured the very unity it claims to defend.
Today, as Ethiopia stirs claims over Eritrean ports and the regime advances its deceptive Tsimdo campaign, both governments endanger Eritrea’s sovereignty and regional stability. This moment demands clarity and courage. Eritreans must rise above the failures of leaders who traded our sovereignty for control and our unity for fear.
Our future will not be defined by imported ideologies or regional manipulation. It will be secured only through national unity, civic awakening, and democratic governance.
5. A Call to Ethiopians and the Nations of the Horn
The EFJD calls upon Ethiopians and all peoples of the Horn of Africa to reject the politics of domination, ethnic manipulation, and militarization. True peace and the future of the region cannot be secured through territorial ambition or proxy wars but through mutual respect, cooperation, and accountability. Sustainable peace in the Horn requires respecting each nation’s sovereignty, addressing historical grievances with honesty, and empowering citizens to build shared prosperity. The Horn’s future depends on cooperation not conquest. The peoples of the Horn share intertwined histories, cultures, and destinies; their peace and prosperity are inseparable.
6. A Call to the International Community
The EFJD urges the international community, including the African Union, the United Nations, and regional partners to condemn any threats or acts of aggression against Eritrea. Sustainable peace in the Horn of Africa requires supporting the right of all peoples to live in freedom, dignity, and self-determination under accountable governance.
7. Conclusion
The EFJD firmly believes that Eritrea’s sovereignty and peace can only be preserved through the unity and vigilance of its people, democratic governance, and a foreign policy rooted in justice and mutual respect. The organization stands against all forms of external aggression and internal authoritarian manipulation that threaten the nation’s independence and the stability of the Horn of Africa.
Eritreans for Justice & Democratic Governance (EFJD)
website: www.efjd.org | email: efjd.info@gmail.com
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